EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 37, 2026

EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 37, 2026

Market Levels (11:00 CET - Sep 7th, 2026)

• Indicative Dec26 EUA: €84.87

• Indicative Spot EUA: €84.21

Market Summary & Fundamentals 

The EUA market enters the week on a constructive note after gaining 1.63% last week to close at €83.31. The primary support continues to come from the broader energy complex. Although EU gas storage has climbed to 66.6% (as of September 5th), inventories remain lower than ideal heading into winter, leaving the market sensitive to supply shocks.

Escalating geopolitical tensions—specifically renewed US-Iran attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—pushed Brent crude up 8% last week and triggered a sharp rise in European natural gas prices. This sustained strength in gas improves coal-fired power economics (fuel-switching), driving up emissions intensity and generating additional EUA demand. Tightness across refinery supply and marine fuel further reinforces the bullish sentiment across energy markets.

Short-Term Outlook For the week ahead, the fundamental bias leans mildly bullish for EUAs. The key variable remains the gas-power complex: elevated TTF prices and Middle East supply risks offer strong downside protection. However, ongoing storage injections, potential signals around Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the risk of high energy costs weighing on European industrial demand will act as primary counterweights.

Key Headlines to Watch:

• 14.6 million EUAs scheduled for this week (an increase of 2.9 million from last week).

• Escalating US-Iran strikes on tankers drive Brent (+8%) and European natural gas futures higher.

• EU gas storage reaches 66.6% (as of Sept 5th), improving but leaving markets exposed to winter supply risks.

• Germany opposes EU plans to weaken the ETS Market Stability Reserve; Türkiye launches its 2026 ETS pilot scheme.