EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 38, 2026

EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 38, 2026

Market Levels (11:30 CET - Sep 15th, 2026)

• Indicative Dec26 EUA: €86.19

• Indicative Spot EUA: €85.55

Market Summary & Fundamentals 

The EUA market maintained strong upward momentum last week, with Spot prices increasing 2.18% to close at €85.29 (reaching a weekly high of €86.00). Upward momentum continues to be driven primarily by tightness across the broader energy complex and escalating geopolitical risks.

Oil prices jumped above $100/bbl following new strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and a Saudi pipeline outage that threatens up to 4% of global oil supply. While direct oil impact on carbon is limited, lingering logistics and LNG disruptions keep European gas and power prices elevated, improving fossil fuel generation economics.

For the week ahead, the fundamental bias for Dec-26 remains moderately bullish. Geopolitical risks in energy markets, weather-driven thermal generation demand, and supportive EU policy decisions provide strong fundamental backing. Primary counterweights to watch include steady improvements in EU gas storage (currently at 68.0%) and the risk that persistently high energy prices begin to constrain European industrial output.

Key Headlines to Watch:

• 4.6 million EUAs scheduled for auction this week.

• Brent tops $100/bbl amid new strikes on Saudi infrastructure and delayed Strait of Hormuz talks.

• EU member states provisionally agree to preserve the MSR invalidation mechanism, upholding long-term scarcity rules.

• Record summer heat and drought increase European cooling demand while curbing hydro power production.