EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 39, 2026

EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 39, 2026

Market Levels (11:00 CET - Sep 21st, 2026)

• Indicative Dec26 EUA: €87.11

• Indicative Spot EUA: €86.52

Market Summary & Fundamentals 

The EUA market continues to trade in a constructive upward structure, with Dec-26 reaching €86.74/t. While the broader energy picture is becoming more two-sided, strong fuel-switching dynamics and supportive structural policy signals continue to underpin carbon demand.

European coal power generation surged by 45% year-on-year in August as high gas prices made coal comparatively more competitive, despite robust renewable output. This fuel-switching shift is driving higher emissions intensity, boosting EUA demand as the market moves toward the winter heating season. On the regulatory side, the removal of the proposed CORSIA exemption from the EU ETS revision keeps aviation allowance demand broad, while long-term power needs from expanding EU data centers provide further structural support.

Counterbalancing this bullish pressure, EU gas storage has climbed to 69.60% (as of September 19th), helping reduce the winter supply-risk premium. Additionally, oil prices have eased slightly on hopes of renewed US-Iran diplomacy, taking some immediate pressure off the wider European energy complex.

Key Headlines to Watch:

• 14.6 million EUAs scheduled for auction this week (unchanged from last week).

• EU coal-fired power generation jumped 45% YoY in August due to elevated gas prices.

• Lead EU Parliament negotiator removes CORSIA exemption from ETS proposal, preserving aviation demand.

• EU storage reaches 69.60% (as of Sept 19th), continuing to ease winter supply concerns.