EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 34, 2026

EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 34, 2026

Market Levels ( 11:00 CET - Aug 17th , 2026)

• Indicative Dec26 EUA: €81.48

• Indicative Spot EUA: €80.71

Market Summary & Fundamentals

The EUA market enters the week with a mixed energy backdrop. European gas storage has climbed to 60.8%, but inventories remain historically low for this point in the summer. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, specifically stalled US-Iran negotiations and slowed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are adding uncertainty to energy flows.

On the power generation side, French nuclear availability has fallen to a three-year low due to heat-related restrictions. This drop in nuclear output is lifting power prices and encouraging additional fossil fuel generation, which provides fundamental support for EUA demand. However, this bullish signal is currently engaged in a tug-of-war with record-high solar generation across the EU, which is limiting some of the thermal demand.

Short-Term Outlook 

For the week ahead, the fundamental backdrop leans moderately supportive for EUAs. The key variable will likely remain the gas-power complex: if European gas continues to trend higher without a significant deterioration in industrial demand, the carbon market has room to regain some ground after last week's decline.

Key Headlines to Watch:

• Auction volume: 11.1 million EUAs (an increase of 3.4 million from last week).

• Grid strain: Heat outages drive weekly French nuclear availability to a 3-year low, offset slightly by record solar output in July.

• Geopolitics: The EU is planning a far-reaching sanctions package against Russia for the autumn.

• Aviation: CAR publishes insurance criteria for CORSIA carbon credit use.

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