EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 40, 2026

EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 40, 2026

Market Levels (11:00 CET - Sep 28th, 2026)

• Indicative Dec26 EUA: €86.48

• Indicative Spot EUA: €85.95

Market Summary & Fundamentals 

EUA pricing remains supported by long-term decarbonization goals and geopolitical risks, though the energy complex is balancing ahead of winter.

EU gas storage reached 70.9% (Sept 26th), strengthening winter buffers. Rebounding Mideast oil exports have eased price pressures, but stalled US-Iran talks keep geopolitical risk premiums in European markets. Policy-wise, Germany unveiled its fossil-fuel phase-out roadmap, boosting long-term demand. Meanwhile, the EC is floating energy demand curbs, and industry warns the ETS reform timeline is getting tight.

For the week ahead, the fundamental bias remains moderately bullish. Supportive fuel-switching economics back prices, while rising gas storage and stabilizing oil flows serve as primary counterweights.

Key Headlines to Watch:

• 12.7 million EUAs scheduled for auction this week (down 2.1 million from last week).

• Oil ticks higher as US-Iran peace talks hit a stalemate, counterbalancing a September rebound in Mideast crude exports.

• EU floats energy demand curbs in price crisis letter; industry warns the timetable for ETS reforms is "too short."

• EU gas storage reaches 70.9% (as of Sept 26th), building a stronger buffer ahead of the heating season.