EU ETS Carbon Market Update – Week 41, 2026

Market Levels (11:00 CET - Oct 5th, 2026)

• Indicative Dec26 EUA: €82.94

• Indicative Spot EUA: €82.46

Market Summary & Fundamentals 

The EUA market faces a softer backdrop as easing energy supply concerns and emerging political discussions weigh on near-term prices, with Dec26 pulling back towards the €82.90 level.

EU gas storage reached 72.4% as of October 3rd, providing a comfortable starting point for the winter season. Continued strong Norwegian gas deliveries, recovering Middle Eastern crude exports, and potential G7 stock releases have collectively taken pressure off the broader energy complex. For carbon markets, lower marginal power-generation costs and reduced fears of a winter supply crunch limit immediate upside momentum.

In addition, policy risk has resurfaced as a key counterweight ahead of the October 15–16 European Council meeting. Italy and Czechia are pushing for temporary measures to curb energy and carbon costs, including allocation flexibility and a potential postponement of ETS2. While the EU continues to defend the structural integrity of the carbon market, these political discussions introduce an interventionist tone that may cap near-term bullish positioning.

Short-Term Outlook For the week ahead, the fundamental outlook appears fairly balanced with a mild downside bias. High gas inventories and political noise surrounding carbon costs create short-term headwinds, though the long-term structural framework of the ETS remains intact.

Key Headlines to Watch:

• 14.6 million EUAs scheduled for auction this week (an increase of 1.9 million from last week).

• Italy and Czechia table a proposal package aimed at easing EU carbon and energy prices.

• EU gas storage reaches 72.4% (as of Oct 3rd) as Mideast crude exports recover and G7 considers stock releases.

• EEX announces 293 million EU ETS 2 permits for auction in 2027; Türkiye adopts 2026 ETS pilot phase rules.